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We continue our review of The Berlin Major 2023, the main tournament of spring in competitive Dota 2. As part of our breakdown of Group A, we have compiled a betting tip for the match Evil Geniuses - Execration, played in the second round of the round.
Before the analysis, we analyzed the form of Execration and Evil Geniuses. We reviewed their performances in the recent DreamLeague S19, the DPC and the previous The Lima Major 2023.
Having done the analysis and studied the data, we are ready to tell you what to expect from this b2 match, whether one of the sides will manage to earn a victory and certainly important points or the teams will part ways in a draw.
Let's begin.
Evil Geniuses form
Let's start with the analysis of Evil Geniuses, who will play as the favorites in this match. Bookmakers back that up, with odds of around 2.5 for EG.
EG's advantage is due to their overall performance during the year. The North American club's transfer to neighbouring South America proved to be a good decision on the part of management.
In their "new" region EG fought for the regional championship, but failed to win it. At DPC 2023, Evil Geniuses Ledge or Beastcoast twice, taking the South American Top 2 in the first and second rounds.
However, Evil Geniuses made up for the regional gap in South America by playing internationally, namely at The Lima Major 2023. Their performance in Peru was not perfect, but they did reach the top 6, which was a good result.
- Evil Geniuses roster: Pakazs, Chris Luck, Wisper, Matthew, Pandaboo .
Additionally, the full Evil Geniuses roster took part in another major international event, DreamLeague S19, where they made it all the way to the Top 7.
Initially, EG coped with the first group stage, finishing 10-4 and thus sharing the top 1 with Gaimin Gladiators and Shopify Rebellion. EG finished in the top 7 in the next stage, playing Stage 2 by a score of 2-5.
Evil Geniuses' most popular heroes
The top most popular Evil Geniuses heroes were Beastmaster and Death Prophet. Both heroes were taken 8 times each and had a 75% win rate.
After DP and Primal Beast, Leshrac was the most often played at the third position. He appeared 6 times and had a 66% win rate.
In addition he had Marci (5 games, 60% wins), Templar Assassin (4 games, 100% wins), and Jakiro (4 games, 100% win).
It's worth realising that there's a new patch coming out, which means the peaks will change. If you still believe in the success of the "evil geniuses" bet on EG win with odds 2.5.
No? Take a look at Execration's progress and check out their form below.
Execration form
Execration will be up against Evil Geniuses in this match. They will be the underdogs, with the odds on victory in the region of 4.8.
A similar figure and, as a consequence, the outsider status of Execration is confirmed by the deeds. Apart from successes on the local scene in South East Asia, Execration can't boast anything.
The team won the first round of DPC 2023: SEA, before finishing 2nd in the second. That would have been fine, but in conditions identical to those of The Berlin Major 2023, Execration did not fare well.
In Lima, the team had managed to draw 6 times and lose 2 series. It was not enough to get through the group stage and as a consequence the Execration left the tournament in 15th-16th place.
- Execration squad: Palos, Bob, Tino, Shankz, BDz .
The failed Lima Major 2023 led to changes in the line-up, but the players were not touched. The coaching staff were rehired by March.
Spot changes, however, did not play a role, and there was no improvement on the international stage. An attempt was made at DreamLeague S19, where Execration made it through the ESL ranking system.
I can't speculate about the viability of such a rating, but the results speak for themselves. DreamLeague S19 Execration finished in 10th place, with a 1-4-2 in the group stage. In fairness, though, Execration were beaten by Ledge or TSM, thereby failing to qualify for the next round.
The most popular Execration heroes
The most popular Execration hero was Tiny (10 matches, 50% win rate).
Other picks were Mirana (6 games, 83% wins), Visage (6 games, 83% wins), Beastmaster (6 games, 50% wins), Batrider (6 games, 33% wins).
Again, let's not forget the release of patch 7.33, which has globally changed the meta and the game. The patch will definitely change the way the teams approach the game and if you believe that Execration will benefit from it, pick them as the winner of the match at odds around 4.8.
Before we start betting, we recommend to take a closer look at the history of head-to-head encounters between EG and Execration.
History of head-to-head encounters between Evil Geniuses and Execration
The teams have played each other twice before (The Lima Major 2023 and DreamLeague S19). Both times ended in a draw.
Predicted results for Evil Geniuses vs Execration
From the looks of it, this match will end in a blowout draw. The teams are on equal footing due to the release of patch 7.33. The history of their head-to-head encounters hints at a roughly equal level of team play.
The performance of Execration and Evil Geniuses differs, but I don't see a big difference between the clubs. Conclusion: a draw.
Conclusion: a draw.
