Match forudsigelse: Hokori - Beastcoast | Dota 2
The International 2022We continue to review the first round of the playoffs of the main event of the eSports world. After discussing the opening matches of the upper bracket, we move on to, in fact, much more interesting fights.
We are talking about the draw of losers and a couple that opens matches for life. Here we have the South American derby.
The charm of this fight is hard to describe. It so happened historically that it is the games of South American teams in knock-out matches that are the loudest.
Perhaps, stereotypes are played out about the restlessness and hot temperament of the representatives of the region, but this is true. In this match, the intensity of passions will be squeezed to the maximum: two guests from South America are playing.
We are trying to figure out which duo of Beastcoast and Hokori will continue their path to their dream, and who will have to say goodbye to The International 2022 at the TOP-16 stage.
Form Beastcoast
Beastcoast will play as the favorite in this match. The chance of winning a team from South America is estimated by a coefficient of around 1.8.
In general, such a figure is not just a hint, it directly indicates the parity of the teams in this battle. In fact, it is.
Beastcoast this season fell a little short of the status of the strongest team in their region. The team won the first tour in South America, after which they took second place at the DPC SA 2021/2022 Tour 2: Division 1. The South American silver medalists visited Sweden, where they played at ESL One Stockholm 2022 and took the TOP-6.
Returning to their home harbor, Beastcoast again took 2nd place in South America and went to PGL Arlington Major 2022. The American dream did not come true, but in the case of Beastcoast, TOP-6 gave them a direct ticket to Singapore, which cannot be called a bad result.
The International 2022 itself, the team started in their standard style. In Group B, the Beastcoats made some noise, but not loud enough to reach the upper bracket of the playoffs.
Beastcoast performance at The International 2022
In Group B, Beastcoast finished 7th, finishing 2-4-3 in series and 8-10 in maps.
Of the iconic series, we can note the cards taken from Spirit, Tundra and Thunder. However, they lost against Secret, Aster and Fnatic, where they had a very strained series with the latter with coups and comebacks.
Composition of Beastcoast
- K1
- Chris Luck
- Wisper
- Scofield
- Stinger
I don’t see much point in getting to know the Beastcoast five more closely, since the players are well known. For K1, Chris Luck and company, this The International will not be the first. Let's see if they can beat the result of last year, when the team also got into the lower bracket and lost in the first round to the then toothless Aliiance.
Heroes of Beastcoast
The International 2022 Beastocoast does not reinvent the wheel, which is not typical for the team. We are used to seeing branded heroes, but now the reality is that it is better to play consistently and meta.
The most common picks are Shadow Fiend (6 matches, 66% wins), Marci (5 matches, 40% wins), Snapfire (5 matches, 40% wins), Enigma (4 appearances, 25% wins), Tiny (4 matches, 25% win rate).
Hokori shape
Opposing Beastcoast as an outsider will be Hokori. The chance of the Peruvian five winning by bookmakers is estimated by odds around 1.9.
Such a figure strengthens the status quo in this match. In fact, parity is even more interesting from that.
Hokori is the main discovery of this year at The International, if you do not take into account their countrymen from Thunder Predator, obviously. Were there hints of their success as the season progressed? More likely no than yes.
All that Hokori remembers is the 3rd place in the second round of DPC SA 2021/2022 Tour 2: Division 1. This was not enough to qualify for ESL One Stockholm 2022, but Hokori didn’t really pursue it: they played at local events and prepared to the start of the next round.
In the third DPC draw, Hokori fell to 8th place, leaving the elite division. However, this did not prevent them from winning a direct ticket to the group The International at the closed qualifiers, and then the most interesting thing began - their performance on the main stage of the year.
Hokori performance at The International 2022
What Hokori produced in Group A at The International 2022 can only be called a sensation. How else can you characterize the game of the team from the second division of South America, which took 5th place in the group and a little short of reaching the upper bracket of the playoffs.
Hokori took cards from PSG.LGD, OG, beat Royal Never Give Up dry. We finished the group stage with a score of 2-5-2 in series and 9-9 in maps, missing one point for replays for the TOP-4.
Composition of Hokori
- Lumiere
- 4nalog
- Vitaly
- Thiolicor
- Gardick
The Five Hokori makes you fall in love with yourself. Separate praises want to sing Lumiere and Thiolicor. They looked very solid and I think they have the ardor for further success.
Heroes Hokori
In patch 7.32 Hokori play on: Tusk (12 matches, 66% wins), Undying (11 matches, 81% wins), Marci (11 matches, 81% wins), Omniknight (10 matches, 70% wins), Death Prophet (10 matches, 60% win rate), Puck (10 matches, 60% win rate).
History of personal confrontations
Due to the constant games within the DPC SA, Hokori and Beastcoast often played with each other. There is an opinion in the community that Hokori is some kind of Beastcoast kryptonite, but the history of face-to-face confrontations suggests otherwise. Beastcoast have won 3 matches in the last season, all 2-1.
The outcome of the fight
The battle will be interesting to watch for several reasons. Firstly, this is a confrontation between teams familiar with each other with a great background, but here the condition of playing in one region does not play a key role.
When choosing a winner, I will push away from the performance in this tournament, and here Hokori look a cut above. Yes, they might be broken by the tension and the playoff factor, but by cold calculation, I'll pick them as the winner. Still, in the group stage, they looked much more attractive than their compatriots and can definitely take the card from them, which we saw during the season in South America.
Outcome: victory for Hokori.
Forecast for the derby teams from one division - South America with Hokori and beastcoast in the lower bracket of the TI11 playoffs. Both teams have been playing in the same division for a long time and know exactly what they are playing. This is BO1, which means anything can happen.
In 2022, Hokori and beastcoast played 3 times between themselves and 3 times won beastcoast, but there were three full-fledged BO3s, which means that this statistic does not really affect, but just to understand that Hokori can take cards from bc.
Analytics and bets on Dota 2 for TI11 in Telegram: t.me/flzbets
It’s definitely roulette here, if not in LIVE, by pre-match you need to believe in those who have higher odds. K1 plays as badly as possible, except for Sven/Naga; Chris Luck doesn't need to be given to Primal Beast; on the three they have the main star - Wisper (Enigma/Pangolier/Timbersaw/Snapfire).
Heroes of Hokori:
Lumiere: Shadow Fiend/Morphling/Faceless Void
4nalog: Pangolier/Puck/Zeus/Huskar, but there is also Invoker 30 lvl:)
Vitaly: Pangolier/Broodmother/Marci/Enigma/Brewmaster
Thiolicor: Hoodwink/Mirana/Snapfire/Tiny
Gardick: Undying/Clockwerk/Disraptor
Heroes of beastcoast:
K1: Wraith King/Sven/Naga Siren/Drow Ranger/Faceless Void
Chris Luck: Puck/Primal Beast/Leshrac/Shadow Fiend
Wisper: Enigma/Pangolier/Snapfire
Gojira: Tiny/Marci/Nyx Assassin/Clockwerk
Stinger: Silencer/Marci/Crystal Maiden/Undying
Again, I will say that this is a clear roulette, the match is completely 50 vs 50, Lumiere is stronger than K1, however, beastcoast has stronger guys in other roles. The key confrontation will be in the mid.
You need to look at the drafts and who will take the late pick, and not at the pace, since the level of pressure and mistakes will definitely be.
On Hokori - 1.98
On beastcoast - 1.77
Here, purely because of the coefficients, you can believe in Hokori, but it’s better in LIVE, I wonder who will raise which heroes for themselves.
Prediction: Hokori wins beastcoast - odds 1.98
Bookmakers & Statistics
Beastcoast er opført som kampens favoritter hos de fleste bookmakere, og odds på dem er lig med 1.529. Hokori er til gengæld kampens outsidere. Odds på deres sejr er omkring 4.881.
Hvad er holdenes succeser i de sidste kampe
Sidste kampe | Hokori | Beastcoast |
5 kampe (sejre) | 3 | [udevinderrate_5] |
10 kampe (sejre) | 5 | [ude_vinder_10] |
Statistikken over personlige kampe mellem hold er også vigtig for succesfulde væddemål. Holdene spillede 6 kampe med hinanden før. I disse kampe vandt Hokori 0 gange, Beastcoast aktive sammensætninger af 5 sejre.