There's no such thing as a big Dota. We continue our series of analysis on DreamLeague S19 with a betting contest between Team Aster and Evil Geniuses in the group stage matches of the $1,000,000 tournament.
Preparations for the breakdown were made by watching the teams' home matches in the second round of the DPC, and their successes there; their performance on the international stage, i.e. at the Lima Major 2023; and an analysis of the opening fixtures in the DreamLeague S19 itself.
Let's look at what to expect from the top teams in the region and what outcome of Team Aster vs Evil Geniuses is most likely on paper.
Evil Geniuses - South America's best international team
We begin with an analysis of the Evil Geniuses outfit. The team are the favourites to win this game.
Bookmakers' odds indicate the pre-match situation and EG's status as a potential winner. The odds for Evil Geniuses to win this match are estimated at around 3.2.
This state of affairs is due to EG's performance and their success in the last round of the domestic league, but first of all to Aster's decline, about which a little later. Speaking of EG, it's worth mentioning their stability: The squad was twice in the Top 2 of South America and Top 6 at the 2023 Lima Major.
The stability of Evil Geniuses is not in doubt, since the team has a fairly well-played roster. The squad was formed before the DPC Long Convergence 2023, but the players know each other for a long time and have crossed paths with each other throughout their careers.
- Evil Geniuses line-up: Pakazs, Chris Luck, Wisper, Matthew, Panda.
You can see EG's desire to form a battle team, successful on the international stage in the first place. The backbone of EG is made up of former Thunder Awaken members and the duo that previously represented Beastcoast. Both clubs have enjoyed success at The International 2022 and have upgraded to Evil Geniuses where they have been given more room to develop.
Most popular Evil Geniuses heroes
The most popular EG heroes are Death Prophet and Undying (7 games and 71% of wins each).
Clockwerk has had 5 picks and won all the matches. Another 5 games each have Riki (80% win rate), Snapfire and Timbersaw (5 matches, 60% win rate).
The days of not taking South America seriously are over. In recent years, teams from there have been showing a decent level of Dota, which we can see in the final tables of tournaments like The International and Major Championships. China, on the other hand, is currently on the decline, as indicated by the level of play of the teams in the Lima Major 2023.
If you believe in the success of the strong Peruvian representative at this tournament and are disappointed with the situation in China - bet in favor of EG with odds in the region of 3.2. Another argument in favour is the encounter at the Lima Major 2023, where EG knocked Aster out of the tournament.
If you're not ready to favour the "evil geniuses" in a bo2 match, check out Team Aster. Next, let's take a look at what the top 1 contender in China is all about.
Team Aster's form is that of a top 1 contender in the Chinese division, but with caveats.
Team Aster will be up against Evil Geniuses. The team will be catching up in this match.
Bookmakers confirm Team Aster's lead in this matchup, but it's minimal. The odds on Team Aster winning are at 3.6.
The minimal gap between the teams, as we mentioned above, is caused by the game in the last DPC round in the regions. There, Aster finished in the top 4, missing out on both main rivals PSG.LGD and Xtreme, as well as the very unexpected candidate IG.
Here comes the factor of China's slump. The region's best result was Top 8 at the Lima Major 2023, which, by the way, was made by Aster, but it doesn't stand up to the competition because back at The International 2022 Aster finished in Top 4.
- Team Aster line-up: Monet, Xwy, Xxs, BoBoKa, Siamese.C
It's hard to say what happened to Aster. The factor of Ori's departure after The International 2022 suggests itself, but it shouldn't dramatically affect it. After all, on the example of PSG.LGD we can see that it's possible to win the region with 3 key replacements.
The most popular Team Aster characters
Aster likes to play as Enchantress. They have taken her 11 times and she wins 72% of the time.
Other picks are Tiny (6 games, 66% wins), Clockwerk (6 games, 50% wins), Disruptor (5 games, 60% wins).
In the second round, DPC Aster were less likely to resort to stunting "heavy" carry, preferring the more metered cortexes like NP and others. Apparently, this doesn't fit too well with Aster's playstyle, accustomed to playing Monet.
However, Aster remain a formidable contender, capable of winning thanks to the players' experience of playing in major international events.
Believe in the Aster comeback and their improved performance - bet on them to win at odds of 3.6.
Predicted Team Aster - Evil Geniuses result
Taking into consideration the nominal closeness of the teams, we can predict a draw in this match. This will be our bet.
Given that this is the first day of the tournament, and even bo2 matches, there is every chance to see the "lapping" of the teams to each other and as a consequence an exchange of cards.
Bottom line: draw.
