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Professional League of Legends shows no signs of slowing down. We're back at LEC Winter 2025, where the final weekend is getting ready to kick off.
There are 3 teams left in the fight for the champion title and a ticket to First Stand 2025, including Karmine Corp – Fnatic. The clubs will play each other in the final of the lower bracket, the winner goes to G2 Esports.
We are trying to figure out which of the Fnatic – Karmine Corp pair will be stronger and have a chance to displace G2 from the “European throne” in the grand final of LEC Winter 2025.
Let's go.
Fnatic uniform
We open the analysis of the match Fnatic - Karmine Corp with an analysis of the game form of Fnatic. In this match they play as favorites with a coefficient of victory in the region of 1.6.
Fnatic began their ascent to the LEC regional finals of the season before last with a performance at LEC Winter 2023. It would be hard to call it a success, as the “orange” team finished the tour in 9th place, not making it out of the group stage.
The following season, Fnatic gave the roster with Rekkles one last chance. They failed to use it, because FNC, having left the group stage, lost in the first match to MAD Lions, thus ending the spring split in the TOP-8.
- Fnatic roster: Oscarinin, Razork, Humanoid, Upset, Mikyx.
Two terrible splits led to major changes. The then roster lost shooter Rekkles and support Advienne. They were replaced by Korean legionary Noah and experienced support Trymbi. The results were not long in coming.
Fnatic looked much better in the LEC Summer Split than they had in the two before. The team managed to get through the group stage and then reach the Top 3 of LEC Summer 2023, which allowed them to advance to the regional finals. Well, to the lower bracket, to be honest.
In the match for reaching the Top 4, Fnatic played against Excel, the main revelation of LEC Summer 2023, and won. They won with a score of 3-2 in a tense Bo5.
In the match for the LEC Finals 2023 minor final, Fnatic and BDS put up a real fight (3-2), as a result of which Fnatic ended up here.
They also managed to bypass MAD Lions, with whom they played for a place in the grand final. And again a full bo5 with a score of 3-2 in favor of the “orange”. But they didn’t have enough for the grand final: G2 Esports outclassed Fnatic with a score of 3-1.
At Worlds 2023, the “orange” played according to their capabilities. The club lost the first match against LNG Esports, and then beat the Vietnamese from GAM Esports.
The last match on the way to the 1-2 bracket was a duel with BLG, which Fnatic naturally lost. Then FNC beat C9 with a score of 2-1, and in the match for reaching the playoffs they lost to WBG. The latter, by the way, became the vice-champion of the world championship, so the result for the European club was excellent.
Fnatic will debut at LEC Winter 2024 with a match against Karmine Corp. Based on the experience of previous seasons, there is every chance to see the favorite (and that is Fnatic) lose in that match. Next, they will have a match against Vitality, and here I would bet in favor of the “orange”. That’s pretty much how it turned out, if you don’t count the match against Karmine Corp: Fnatic closed two series, but lost in the match against SK Gaming.
Fnatic started the regular season pretty well, but then things got worse. As a result, Fnatic finished the regular season with a score of 5-4. The “orange ones” started the LEC Winter 2024 playoffs with a very confident victory for MAD Lions. Then Fnatic played against G2 Esports and looked good there, even managed to snatch a map, which no one has managed to do yet.
In the match for the quarterfinals, Fnatic met SK Gaming. The German club put up a fight, but Fnatic turned out to be stronger: 2-1 in favor of Humanoid and the company guaranteed them passage to the TOP-4 of LEC Winter 2024.
In the next match, Fnatic managed to put up a fight against G2 Esports and take the map from them, but they failed to surpass the “samurai” in the match. They also failed to cling to continued participation in the tournament in the lower bracket, where Fnatic lost to KOI with a score of 2-3. As a result of LEC Winter 2024, Fnatic took the TOP-4.
Fnatic finished the LEC Spring 2024 regular season in first place, which the team had not done since 2019. In the first round of the playoffs, Fnatic shut down GIANTX with class. In the match for reaching the final of the LEC Spring 2024 upper bracket, they met G2 and lost without a chance with a score of 0-2. In the lower bracket, they also had difficulties, such as in the game against Heretics, but in the end they were able to defeat their opponents with a score of 2-1 and move on. In the match for reaching the TOP-3, Fnatic met Vitality and confidently beat them with a score of 3-1.
Fnatic fought against BDS for the LEC Spring 2024 Grand Final and it was a real spectacle: the “orange” were flying with a score of 0-2, but with character they made a reverse sweep and closed the series in their favor. As a result, Fnatic will go to MSI 2024. In the LEC Spring 2024 Grand Final, the “orange” played against G2 Esports and naturally lost that match.
Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) 2024 Fnatic started their performance with a win over GAM Esports without any problems at all with a score of 2-0. In the upper bracket match, they met Top Esports and put up a good fight: they took the map, but ultimately lost the series with a score of 1-2. In the match for reaching the playoffs of MSI 2024, Fnatic again beat GAM Esports with a score of 2-0. In the first match of the Bracket Stage, they lost to Gen.G with a score of 0-3, but showed their game. But in the lower bracket match, Fnatic quite unexpectedly lost to TL with a score of 1-3, thereby leaving MSI 2024 at the TOP-8 stage.
Before the start of Esports World Cup 2024, Fnatic confidently reached the LEC Summer 2024 playoffs. As a result of EWC 2024, Fnatic took the TOP-8. On the home stage - TOP-2 at LEC Summer 2024 and LEC Finals 2024. However, one of Fnatic's most important achievements is getting to Worlds 2024, where the "orange" managed to get into the TOP-14.
The team went through the LEC Winter 2025 group stage with great confidence. They lost only 1 map in the group stage, finishing it with a score of 9-1. They started the playoffs confidently, beating Heretics with a score of 2-0. But then came the match against G2 Esports and a loss with a score of 0-2. In the lower bracket match of LEC Winter 2025, Fnatic played against BDS, where they barely won with a score of 2-1, mostly due to BDS’s “drain” on the third map. In the next match, they looked much more confident: they beat KOI with a score of 3-1.
Fnatic's Most Popular Champions
The top lane is taken by Jax (3 matches, 33% wins), Gwen (2 matches, 50% wins), Gangplank (2 matches, 50% wins), Jayce (2 games, 50% wins).
In the jungle, the permanent Maokai (7 matches, 42% wins), Sejuani (4 games, 25% wins), Vi (3 games, 66% wins).
The mid lane was most often occupied by Sylas (5 matches, 40% wins), Ryze (3 games, 100% wins), Akali (2 games, 0 wins).
Zeri and Sivir were equally frequently picked for the marksman position. Both heroes appeared 4 times, but the former won all of her games, while the latter won none.
Of the supports, Ashe appeared most often. The archer was chosen 5 times and won 2 matches. Yuumi (4 matches, 75% wins), Heimerdinger (4 matches, 25% wins) were also often played.
Karmine Corp Form
We continue our analysis of the Karmine Corp – Fnatic match with an analysis of Karmine Corp’s game form. In this match, they are playing as underdogs with a win odds of around 2.2.
Despite their great popularity in Europe, Karmine Corp is an absolute newcomer to the LEC league. Before that, the French team played on the local scene, competing against their compatriots, and also performed at various TIR-2 events that are part of the LEC ecosystem.
The team has a very serious track record for 2023, including participation in 4 tournaments. For professional teams in the League of Legends, this is a significant indicator, since most of them play exclusively within a single league.
Karmine Corp started LFL Spring 2023 and had a terrible start. The team went 7-11 in the local league group stage, which wasn't enough to even make the playoffs.
Then the situation improved significantly and Karmine Corp raised the championship cup over their heads twice in a row. The first time was at LFL Summer 2023, and the second time was at EMEA Masters Summer 2023. By the way, Karmine Corp won Masters 4 times in the history of the team and this is a significant indicator.
The last tournament of the last season was the Coup De France 2024 championship. Either there was no priority for the event, or they were not in shape at all, but KC took the TOP-8 there.
- Ingredients of Karmine Corp: Canna, Yike, Vladi, Caliste, Targamas.
Karmine Corp became members of the LEC by purchasing a slot from Astralis. The Danish club, which did not achieve results last season, decided to sell its place in the prestigious league. Whether they did the right thing - we will find out later.
In the first match of LEC Winter 2024, Karmine Corp will play against Fnatic. I believe in Karmine's victory in that match. After that, there is a game against G2 Esports, and that's where Karmine Corp will have a much harder time. However, with Fnatic, everything turned out the other way around: KC won, and with G2 Esports, everything is logical, an easy victory for the "samurai".
Karmine Corp are officially the worst team of LEC Winter 2024 ahead of time. Entering their final regular season match, KC are 1-7, with their only win coming in Week 3 against SK Gaming. The only sweet spot was the prestige point Karmine Corp earned in their final group stage match.
At LEC Spring 2024, Karmine Corp repeated their “success” of the winter split. That is, they took the last place again, and with an identical result of 2 wins and 7 losses.
At LEC Summer 2024 Playoffs, they made it from 5th place with a score of 4-5. They debuted in the playoffs with a match against G2 Esports, where they lost with a score of 0-2. Karmine Corp quite unexpectedly moved MAD Lions KOI in the first round of the lower bracket, closing out a more titled opponent with a score of 2-0. Then another victory and again over a more titled opponent in the person of SK Gaming. As a result, they managed to get to the TOP-4, but then there was not enough enthusiasm and BDS knocked Karmine Corp out of the tournament.
Karmine Corp had a good LEC Winter 2025 group stage. Canna and company shared the second line of the group stage table with G2 and KOI, winning it back with a score of 6-3. In the first round of the playoffs, Karmine Corp confidently beat Team Vitality, and then won against KOI with the same score. Against G2, the situation was completely different and it led to a defeat with a score of 1-3.
Karmine Corp's Most Popular Champions
The most popular and successful top lane champion remains Gragas (3 matches, 100% wins), and also Kennen (3 matches, 66% wins).
Wukong (6 games, 33% win rate) and Sejuani (4 matches, 100% win rate) play in the jungle.
The mid lane is played with Ahri (4 matches, 0% win rate), Tristana (3 matches, 100% win rate) and Syndra (3 matches, 100% win rate).
The ADC position is most often occupied by Lucian (4 matches, 50% wins), Aphelios (4 matches, 75% wins).
Nami (3 games, 66% wins) and Thresh (3 matches, 100% wins) often appear in pairs with shooters.
Karmine Corp vs Fnatic Head-to-Head History
Since the start of the 2024 season, the teams have played each other 4 times. Fnatic won all matches.
Predicted Result of Fnatic vs. Karmine Corp Match at LEC Winter 2025
I expect Fnatic to win this match. After all, the situation in the European League of Legends has not changed since last season and we will once again see the fight between G2 and Fnatic in the LEC grand final.
Result: Fnatic wins.
