We are approaching the second match of the last gaming day of the LEC Winter Stage 2023. The duel between Astralis and KOI will be one of the key points of interest in the final round.
Both teams have not yet guaranteed themselves a pass to the group stage and are in a difficult position. A victory in the match actually guarantees them a passage further, but a loss in the game can put an end to further participation in LEC Winter 2023.
KOI will go into the match with a score of 3-5. The team takes 7th place in the standings and is at risk of falling into the relegation zone.
Astralis will play in this match with the same alignment in the standings. Before the last match, the Danish club had 3 wins and 5 losses and the same 7th place.
We are sorting out which of the teams will take the last penultimate slot in the group stage, and who will have to play in potential replays for the last place in the second stage.
Astralis shape
We begin the analysis of the match with an analysis of the game form of Astralis. The team will approach the game in the status of a favorite.
The bookmaker highly appreciates the chances of Astralis to win. Such an outcome is estimated by a coefficient in the region of 1.4.
This is hard to believe, but reality dictates its own conditions. Astralis are showing a good season by their standards, playing better than expected.
Astralis squad
Such conditions would have been impossible to achieve without combat personnel. In the new Astralis season with this lineup:
- Finn
- 113
- Dajor
- Kobbe
- JeongHoon
Apparently, the newly arrived players went through the process of adaptation, because it is difficult to explain such a surge of energy in the Astralis game in another way. You can scold the opponents of the “Danes”, but it is still more pleasant to realize the viability of Astralis themselves, rather than the poor playing form of their counterparts.
Astralis Performance
The Danes have 3-5 and they have already guaranteed themselves at least replays. By winning here, Astralis advance to the next stage of the games.
The Danes started with a loss to Team Heretics and continued the first week of the LEC with pockets against MAD Lions and G2 Esports.
The second week was not particularly the best: Astralis lost to Vitality and BDS. However, later the team managed to get the first victory by beating Excel.
In the third week of games, Astralis has risen. So far, the team is going undefeated, leaving behind SK Gaming and Fnatic, which is already very good.
Astralis Champions
Astralis tops KSante (3 matches, 0 win%), Fiora (1 game, 0 wins), Aatrox (1 game, 0 wins). The appearance of Gnar and Gangplank in the picks (1 win in 1 game) became a success.
Of the junglers, Viego (3 games, 0% wins), Sejuani (2 matches, 50% wins), Jarvan IV (1 match, 0% wins) popped up most often. It is best to play for Trundl (2 matches, 2 wins).
Mid lane: Sylas (3 games, 2 wins), Ryze (2 matches, 50% wins), Syndra (2 appearances, 0 wins), Twisted Fate (1 match, 0% wins).
The bot had the largest number of experiments. These are Caytlin and Xayah and Ezrael, as well as Zeri and Lucian. Out of the pool, 2 matches were won by Lucian, 1 by Ezreal.
A similar situation with supports. There was enough variety here: Ashe (2 games, 0 wins), Bard, Lux, Yummi and Nami. The latter won two games in conjunction with Lucian. Meta Karma also won.
Form KOI
Let's continue the review with the analysis of the game form of KOI. They will appear in the match as an outsider.
The bookmaker lost faith in the success of the title French club. The chance of winning the latter is estimated by a coefficient in the region of 2.8.
A twofold advantage in the direction of Astralis hints at a good level of performance of the latter, but casts a shadow on KOI themselves. It is sad to see how, in fact, the defending champions of the European regional leagues are fighting for the opportunity to stay in the race, being at the bottom of the standings.
Composition of KOI
It's hard to link KOI's failures to their roster. The team is played by experienced performers and even more: the backbone has a bright common history and quite high-profile results.
KOI Players
- Szygenda
- Malrang
- Larssen
- Comp
- Trymbi
The transition of Szygenda has become really painful, since the team is given games with such difficulties. However, to hang all the dogs on the new topper is stupid: it is obvious that the problem is not only in this.
KOI Performance
KOI will start the match with 2-4 statistics in the standings. They are on the 7th line.
The first week started fervently, but by the third match the first problems started. Out of 3 games, 2 were won:
- Victory against Team BDS with a score of 1-0
- Victory against EXCEL with a score of 1-0
- Lost to Fnatic 0-1
I can't believe that the only loose, especially against a very serious opponent, hit the morale of experienced players so much. I can't find any other reason for this performance.
- Lost to Team Heretics 0-1
- Lost to MAD Lions 0-1
- Lost to SK Gaming 0-1
I would not say that in the second week of KOI they played against the strongest teams in the division. After all, the same G2 and Vitality are ahead (already in the next match), and it will not be possible to “get” points at passing meetings.
The third week of games brought KOI confrontations against two tops of the standings at once. The rivals were Vitality and G2 Esports:
- Victory over Vitality with a score of 1-0
- Lost to G2 Esports with a score of 0-1
Winning against Vitality can certainly be written as a great achievement of the current KOI. The match against G2 Esports ended more prosaically and as expected.
KOI Champions
In the top of KOI most often were Renekton (2 matches, 50% of wins). They also took Aatrox (1 game, 1 win), Jax (1 game, 0 wins), Fiora (1 game, 0 wins), KSante (1 match, 0 wins).
The most played in the forest were Sejuani (2 matches, 50% win rate), Maokai (2 matches, 50% win rate), Elisa (1 match, 0 win rate), Jarvan IV (1 game, 0% win rate).
Picks for the mid lane were Ryze (2 matches, 50% wins), Kassadin (1 match, 100% wins), Viktor (1 match, 0% wins), Azir (1 match, 0 wins), Tristana (1 match, 0% victories).
Ezrael (2 matches, 50% wins), Kalista (1 match, 100% wins), Jhin (1 match, 0% wins), Sivir and Lucian (1 games each, 0 wins) were played on ADK.
Supports were Nami (2 games, 0% win rate), Ashe and Soraka (1 game each, 100% win rate), Rakan (1 match and 1 loss). Yuumi was there too, 1 match and 1 loss.
History of personal confrontations
Prior to this match, the teams had never met in person. The match within the last game day of the 3rd week will be the first experience of the official face-to-face game of clubs with updated squads.
Match outcome
Before the start of the season, the clear result of the match seemed to be a confident victory for KOI. Now there is no such certainty.
Based on the results of the week, it would be logical to choose Astralis as the winner. They went through Fnatic very confidently and were convincing in the match against SK, and therefore I expect a similar game from them here as well.
Outcome: victory for Astralis.
